Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
